Posts tagged bayesian
Articles and news from the latest research reports.
A Mathematical View of Track and Field World Records
A mathematician has developed a new model that can estimate which track and field world records are the most likely to be broken.
Brian Godsey, a graduate student in mathematics at the Vienna University of Technology in Austria, recently published a paper including computations of the likelihood of record-setting performances in 48 different men’s and women’s track and field events during this calendar year.
Godsey’s paper did not directly address the likelihood of an athlete setting a track and field world record at the 2012 London Olympics, but his analysis suggests that viewers should keep a close watch on the men’s 110-meter hurdles and three women’s events, the 5,000-meter and 3000-meter steeplechase races, as wells as the hammer throw. There is a 95 percent chance that the women’s steeplechase record will be broken this year, Godsey wrote in the Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports.
Using Data to Predict Your Future Health
Have you ever gone on a trip and unexpectedly found yourself in need of medical care? What if your condition could have been predicted? Better yet, what if you already had the medicine needed to treat that condition in your luggage?
The Hierarchical Association Rule Model (HARM), which I co-developed with Tyler McCormick of the University of Washington and David Madigan of Columbia University, can help patients be better prepared by warning them (and their doctors) about the conditions they may likely experience next. The predictive modeling tool checks data about an individual patient against other patients in the database with similar situations to help determine future conditions. It also alerts patients about any higher risks they may have for certain types of conditions.